thoughts

my take on gaza: an egyptian perspective

2008-12-29T04:28:00.000-08:00

I've been watching with confusion all the exchanges between the Egyptian officials (in addition to the Egyptian media, both independent and governmentally controlled) and the Arabs regarding the situation in Gaza. I tried to take a step back and analyze the situation and judge for myself which side stands in a righteous stance. Finally, I came to the conclusion that they are both wrong. The only one right in this whole situation is the citizens, or should I say victims of this political game of chess. Let me share with you what I found.

First the Egyptian stance. The philosophy behind the situation goes to a statement made by the chairman of the foreign relations committee in the people's assembly. He stated (I don't have the exact quote on me but it was something down the lines of the following) Egypt will not allow an Islamic state developing on its borders led by Hamas. This is a logical stance to be taken by a government that has always fought religious factions within it. A rise of an Islamic government in Gaza could potentially threaten the existence of the government in Egypt. I say this because it would signal the weakness of the Egyptian government to prevent such a rise on its borders and the political weight of this would have a profound effect on the Egyptian's as a whole. Of course such an Islamic state is supported strongly by Iran, backed by a rising Russia. Hence, it won't be a weak state politically. It would become another Hezbollah.

So what were the actions that Egypt took to contain that threat? Oops I'm sorry, I did not mean contain I meant to say fight, attack, or any other synonym to that. Well, they claimed a mediator role between Fatah and Hamas (and the other factions). But, they were bluntly biased to Fatah. They tried to weaken Hamas's grip on Gaza by taking part on the embargo by closing the Rafah gates. Of course they stupidly argued that this choice was not theirs because Egypt was not part of the international treaty signed that governs the control of this gate. Of course, they were able to open the gates today, so the question is, is Egypt breaching international law suddenly for the sake of Gaza?! Or did Egypt choose not to open the gates before for the sake of another cause? The cause of course being fighting Hamas. That embargo became very extreme when Hamas blew the wall separating Gaza from Egypt and tens of Palestinians charged into Egypt. The response was pushing them back, building the wall again, and numerous threats to the Palestinians that if they were to take this action again "we would break their legs" as quoted by the diplomatic Egyptian foreign minister. The ironic thing at the time was that weeks before Israeli soldiers had killed 2 or 3 Egyptian border control forces and the Egyptian response at the time was, well, nothing... no threats to Israel... not even waging attacks on Israel in the media declaring Egyptian national security as holy, as they did with Hamas...

Now of course on the side to this mediation you would see the Egyptian government taking actions that effectively jeopardized its neutral role as a mediator. Things such as signing an agreement to export natural gas to Israel. Or the Azhar Sheikh (supposedly the most notable religious figure in the country) shaking Perez's hand. In addition to other small things that accumulated. Of course these were the biases that were made public. One could imagine all the biases that may have happened behind closed doors in the negotiation process. The most drastic political mistake that was done to jeopardize Egypt's position as a mediator was the weak position by the Egyptian foreign minister in that press conference for Livni preceding the war. Livni merely, threatened to wage war on Hamas while Abulgheit stood beside her, quietly.

Egypt's management of the situation after the war started was even worst. Their response was slow and weak. Instead of embarking on diplomatic efforts to unify an Arab stance towards the issue they decided to give more room to defending its peculiar position. They started attacking countries and individuals (Syria, Qatar, Iran, Hasan Nasrallah, and Hamas) for their flagrant criticism about how Egypt was extremely biased. Their demands were simple; OPEN THE GOD DAM RAFAH GATE!! Furthermore, the egyptian government took it even further and is taking measures to stop the Arab summit from being held under the allegations that there is no use to it! Oh by the way, did I mention that President Mubarak's response to all this was 2 days after the war started and he basically just said he refuses to open the Rafah gates except to receive the injured from Gaza. He argued that Egypt will not play a role in dividing the Palestinians further. No comment...

The end result of all this is that Egypt is losing its objective. Hamas is becoming more popular as a result of this war. If Israel decides to go in with ground troops Hamas's popularity will sky rocket!! The longer this war lasts the more popular Hamas will become. This is extremely significant seeing that Abu Mazen's term as president ends in roughly 9 days. So theoretically if elections happen I would be EXTREMELEY SURPRISED if Hamas loses. Sorry I meant fair elections. The only way Abu Mazen can win the elections is if Gaza does not vote... would Israel keep the war going until after the Palestinian elections are over? hmm... interesting question...
Nonetheless, it is important here to note that Hamas probably has a stronger grip on Gaza today than it did before the war. It will probably have an even stronger grip after the war is over. Especially that one of the main points that would make Hamas stop throwing toy rockets is if the borders are open making it possible to recieve daily supplies to keep the people living.

So what could have the Egyptian government done different?
For one they could have opened the gates to Rafah and even pushed it further by supplying Gaza with supplies from day one. This would have probably made Egypt more credible as a mediator between Hamas and Fatah. Meanwhile they should intensively destroy all the tunnels leading to Gaza. Of course these tunnels are there to smuggle weapons and taking action on them would pose a good pressure point on Hamas in the negotiation process. Thirdly, Egypt should have been keen on replacing the Iranian funding source to Hamas by Egyptian money. I would argue that the most thing binding them to Iran is the money. Thirdly, Egypt should have bought more Arab counterparts to the negotiation table. Maybe even regional players such as Turkey. Their recent attempts to steal the spotlight from Egypt in this process was a result of the Egyptian weak position. In addition, engaging more mediators between Hamas and Fatah would strengthen Egypt's position as a leader in this peace process. Fourthly, Israel's position in attacking Gaza was inevitable and even predictable. The timing of these attacks would logically come during election season. The inability to predict this and prepare for it was a shortfall on all Arab countries. Hence, Egypt's action then was to prepare for this attack by studying counter measures. The situation Egypt is in today is because it was unprepared.

What were the measures that it could have been taken when the war started? For one Aboulgheit should have stormed out of that press conference when Livni was threatening to wage war on Hamas. Or ATLEAST reply to her. Secondly, take the leading role of calling on an Arab summit. The Arabs as a whole will not be able to take action against Israel but what they could do is organize the amount of aid presented to Gaza. In addition, the summit could have been an opportunity to mend the wound between Hamas and Fatah. Inviting senior officials from Hamas and Fatah to the summit and engagin all the arab efforts in mediating betweeen them would have been wise. Taking further actions by Egypt should be done in a sequential manner. Meaning that it should be made clear to Israel that the attacks should stop immediately or else actions would be taken. First, Egypt would stop all cooperation on the agricultural level. If they persist, they would suspend the QIZ agreement. If they persist, they would suspend the agreement to export natural gas. If they persist, they would withdraw the Egyptian ambassador from Israel. If they persist, they would suspend all relations on all levels (which effectively means suspending the Camp David agreement). Arab cooperation on such a level would be ideal and achievable. If the Arab countries see that Egypt is willing to gradually escalate things against Israel they would probably follow. Obviously, Israel won't reply to all of this by suspending the attacks. I would be surprised to this. The significance of all this to the Arabs is that this crisis will force Obama to nudge the Arab - Israeli conflict higher up on his list of priorities when he comes to office on January 20th, 2009. Such a loud statement by the Arabs for the first time will encourage Obama to take stronger actions to promote peace in the region. That is what he campaigned for, as a man of peace and not a man of war. The inability of the Arabs to grasp this opportunity and sound these sirens to Obama is another failure on their part. The division of the arabs leaves room for America to take one side over another. Imagine the situation if the majority of the arabs including key countries like egypt took a unified stance against Israel. The US would definetly consider "change"in its foreign policy in the region.

The concluding remark on Egypt is that its mismanagement of the Palestinian file is actually making it more difficult to achieve peace in the region. Their mismanagement of the file is literally granting Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and Hamas more power in the region. There needs to be a serious revision of how Egyptian foreign policy on this issue is approached. Corrective action would start by dismissing the Egyptian foreign minister from office. That is my take on the situation at hand. As I said in the beginning, the victims of this war in Gaza are the only right side. All they are calling for is a peacefull life, and that is the most noble cause in this political game of chess.

Be the change you want to happen

2008-07-30T02:33:00.000-07:00

As promised this one is about Egypt. The situation in Egypt, as you are aware, is chaos. Chaos in every aspect. In the education, in the sports, in the security, in the food distribution, in the distribution of wealth, the wealth of poverty, in the poverty of justice, in the justice of money, in the money of corruption, in the corruption of the system, in the system of corruption, in literally every aspect of life in this country!

This chaos did not happen over night. It is an accumulation of injustice and corruption over tens of years. It is as if Egypt got caught in a whirlwind and was slowly moving to the center over all these years. Today we are closer to the center than ever. Almost on a daily basis you hear of a catastrophe in every sector of life. One day it is the education system, the other it is the bread, the next it is the high gas prices, the one after it is the inflation, the after that it is the corruption in issuing legislation, and then the high steel prices, the next it is the injustice facing the ferry victims... I could go on and on... People are mistaken if they think replacing the prime minister with a new one will solve their problems... That person literally has little in his hands to do. It is the system that needs to be changed. By system I am not referring to the National Democratic Party and the system it imposes. I am referring to each and every Egyptian that let this state of chaos to be. Just the fact that people have surrendered to pessimism and negativity is the core of the issue. The answer to all our problems lies in people changing their attitudes to being more proactive and optimistic that change will happen if you work for it.

Are we closer to a revolution? it may appear so, but I do not think so. All what is happening is that chaos is everywhere. I fear that this chaos may lead us to a more violent state of chaos. Something down the road of Iraq. Except it will be the corruption and injustice that invaded the country instead of the US. Signs of that are beginning to surface in cases such as the Mahalla riots.

The only way to change this is if people change. It seems impossible but it is the only way. People include policy makers who are required to let go of their personal interests and install justice. This is probably the most impossible thing to imagine. But sirens are being sound everywhere screeming that their direct personal interests lies within the stability of this country. And stability will never flourish in a state of corruption and injustice. To every action there is a reaction and people will react to the chaos they help bring by making sure this chaos grows and becomes more destructive.

The people also include the general public. They must also let go of their personal interest and be aware that every aspect of society is relevant to them and hence they must exert an effort to fullfill their roles in contributing to installing justice. To be more clear, it is their role to demonstrate peacefully instead of watching the news and nodding. It is their role to write a word or two about anything they may feel any dismay towards. It is their role to go and vote when they are asked to vote. There are billions of simple acts like these that relect proactiveness and positive attitudes. It is simple acts like these that can make a very big change in the system.

Bottom line is when people change, change will happen. We are all in this together.

Hamas: stupid ignorance of reality

2008-02-10T05:39:00.000-08:00

It took me a while to touch upon this topic. Only because rage prevents sane words from touching paper or in this case, the monitor.

But allow me to take you several years back. When Hamas was voted to take control of the Palestinian Government in 2006. As anyone around the world I was surprised with anxiousness to see how this Sunni conservative "Political Party" will rule an Arab body. It was only a matter of time to see the world except Iran oppose and even fight against this government. And yes the world does include ALL Arab countries and especially the neighboring onese including Egypt ofcourse. I must admit, I was foolish to have hope that such a government would succeed. Not because that their ideology brings to mind the stoneage. On the contrary I think that a modified version of their Islamic Ideology is the ultimate form of governance. In my opinion, Islamic Governance has democracy at its core. Anyways the point I want to make is that the World is not ready for that form of government to succeed. Any anti-western government will most definetly have the western world and their faithfull allies literally at War with them. The examples for this are numerous but off the top of my head, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, or even Sudan.

What lead Hamas to fail was its poor management of international relations. This stems from its ideology that Israel does not exist. Which reality strikingly proves otherwise. It is only ignorant to convince oneselft that Israel does not exist after 50 years of literally kicking our asses all over the Middleast. Its like a new bully is in town and keeps hitting me on the "2affa" (back of my neck) and I just keep telling him I can't see you, you don't EXIST!! In my opinion, Hamas should of atleast not launched any rockets. But it is unfortunate that they sought an ally that does not strengthen their position, Iran. Don't get me wrong I think Iran is managing its international policies PERFECTLY. It is the other bodies partnering with it that have the problem. Actually come to think of it I think Hamas is the only body partnering with Iran that did not weigh it correctly. Hezbollah and Syria did the math correctly, they are better off allying with Iran.

But who should Hamas have allied with? Everyone. It should have worked to close the gaps between it and Fatah. And further work towards a unified Palistinian government. If they managed to stabilize this, having a President in office would have been inevitable in the future. They should have stopped the opposition to Israel and negotiated admitting to Israel with conditions such as sticking to the principle of a peace treaty on the long run. Basically buy time to prove your international stature and then when the peace process does not work (Israel's lack of commitment to the peace process is not even a question) Hamas will be in a stronger position as it did "seak" a peacefull solution. Furthermore Hamas should have, through Fatah, sought stronger relations with the Arab countries especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Saudi Arabia for the money and Egypt for the political support.

Those are just broad lines to how Hamas could have gained from the stronger position it had in 2006. It's fatal mistake was believing that they won the battle by winning an election. Because of their stupid actions they are back to point zero, a guerilla movement that lacks legitimacy. I'm afraid if they continue down this path they will even loose their home support in Gaza.

What is it that they can do now? Well for one they should work on making friends and not enemies. Bursting the border with Egypt was not a smart move in my opinion. Or even threatening Egypt with Alqaeda is even a stupider move. They should bring Fatah back to Gaza by letting Egypt host the talks and give international credit to Egypt that it lead the Palestinians to unite again. They should give up the Prime minister's office for Fatah but hold some ministerial positions. They should tell Israel that they are will stop the rockets, PERIOD. Admitting to Israel at this point is basically surendering. At the same time going the opposite direction is suicide. Anounce to the world that they have stopped the rockets without conditions. Any attack by Israel will put the spotlight on Israel as a terrorist state. After that Hamas should basically try to stay out of the spot light for two or three years, let Fatah lead the show. Fatah will fail, it is impossible to have peace with Israel with their conditions. When that happens Hamas should campaign to the Palistinians and the World the failures of Fatah. It is crucial that they do this without the use of force. As the ramp up their campaign and as Israel pushes for more oppression a new Intifada will burst. By then Hamas could have the power to be voted into power again by the Palistinians but this time they should take the big prize and run for President. If they win it, they should work on stabilizing the situtation, gaining allies, and buying time till their at a stronger state to gain more from a peace process or otherwise depending on the international and regional situation.

But wait, what about Hamas and Iran. At this point Hamas should not give up Iran just yet. It should work on broadening its income sources from other Arab countries. Basically make the Arabs feel that they have a hand in Hamas's policies buy giving it money. Once you have the Arab support give up Iran. This will require a slick handeling of regional relations. Don't make an enemy of Iran just make it less of a friend.

Thats my take on Hamas, but what about Egypt? in my next article I will explain:)

authoritarianism = stability in our burma like countries

2007-10-17T07:22:00.000-07:00

its been a long time since I wrote something... I have no idea why:) what provokes me to write today is a an itch in my head to voice my opinion of why no change will happen in Egypt, politically that is... But first let me take you to what's happening in burma. There is an authoritatian regime in power. There is an international balance of power balancing out the situtation politically. China needs the current regime for both political and economical reasons. The US have no ligitimacy anymore to intervene in countries using allegations of liberating them after what happened in Iraq. In addition economically theUS company Chevron and the French company Total have major investments in that country. So what did actually happen? rising oil prices basically forced the people to burst into riots after accumulating bad conditions of living, human rights violations, and no democracy. The end result being over 3000 people arrested, more torutured and hundereds (officially only tens) of people dead and still no change in burma. Not even a hint of change. I mean if that was not a genuine revolution by the people then what the hell is?!! what will it take for the government of Burma to put in place a democratic system?!!

Now back to Egypt, but let me take you to the situation before 1952, the so called revolution. There was a kingdom in place with a king who has virtual powers. There were political parties, a parliament that had members who were democratically elected, there was a government that was put in place by the prime minister and ofcourse the prime minister was appointed by the king. There was free press, atleast for some time. Egypt was still colonized by the Brits and so they had significant control of the whole situation. So what lead that balance to explode? first it was the situation in Palestine with the establishment of Israel. then there was the political clashes between the political players in Egypt. Then deteriorating economic conditions accompanied by unstable weak cabinets. Ofcourse overshadowing the situation was a weak king. And so as turmoil evolved more friction happened and lead to the birth of the "free leutenants" movment in the army. Which later on did its coup d'etat with the claim that they will put a democratic regime in place and fight the corruption that was there before. And when it happened the situation internationally and ofcourse the balance of power lead the international community to just sit and watch and accept the new reality.

What about today? Egypt has only hints of democracy. Sure there is some freedom of speech and there are some democratic elections in the parliament. But the evidence available to prove that this regime is another authoritarian regime in the world is overwhelming to write in these few lines. But you can name it we have it. Bad economic conditions, multiple violations of human rights, violations against freedom of speech, corruption that is literally everywhere, and ofcourse a regime that is closer to a kingdom then a republic. Today many people have the opinion that a revolution is bound to happen any moment now in Egypt. They rightly point out that the situation politically, economically and even socially reached rock bottom. I, on the other hand, dont think we are even close to a change. The situation globally is too fragile to host the destabilization of a key country in the middleeast. The west and east wont allow it. they are already pre occupied with Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Sudan and ofcourse now burma among others. In addition to ofcourse that the opposition in Egypt lack economic, political and social powers. Moreover the people have surrendered to the ruling parties' strategy to divert their attention to other things like the media or even by keeping them occupied with trying to maintain the living standards they have with the high inflation rates and low number of job opportunities. Howelse could you explain the significantly low but stable development rate that Egypt maintained for the past 25 YEARS!! it must be a government policy...

The only way a revolution will happen is if the national security in Egypt is deeply threatend by either local or international forces. These forces could be political, economic, or even socially. For example politically if Iran's situation erupts into a world war as Bush threatened the flames of that would most definetly engulf the whole middle east and I would'nt be surprised if Egypt gets involved. This may be an introduction to a more politically aware, active and even angry public that may start a slow or fast movement for change. Another political situation is if AlQaeda become active in Egypt and organize several big attacks in Egypt that force the people to react towards the government's incapability to secure its citizens. Economically, rising international oil prices could lead to more inflation of oil prices in Egypt. Even worst it could lead to the government to float oil prices wich definetly trigger massive public anger that could fuel a revolution. Another economic scenario would be if Egypt's economy stagflates due to bursting the bubble of the real estate boom for one reason or another. We lived that scenario before 5 or 10 years back but back then the bubble was'nt as big as it is now. I expect that bubble to explode and have massive effects on the economy much worst than anything we've seen. Another local economic scenario is if the water in Egypt decreases significantly. This is a very likely scenario with the global warming forcing summers to extend in length and increase in tempreture. Socially, and economically a scenario could be if the Bird Flu mutates and spreads to become something like the plague. This is a scenario that the government fails to secure until today.

None of the scenarios I can think of that could provoke a revolution involve the death of the president and his son coming to power. That's because I think this is process is inevitable. Ofcourse there will be opposition but the government will do its usual thing and detain the freedom that those opposers are fighting for... then all will be the same again.

The number of scenarios that could lead to a revolution are numerous. All of the scenarios I can think of spell out bad coditions, instability, and possibly deaths of civilians. The road to a revolution is not as easy as some may argue. I don't think we are there yet. The current situation is bad but stable. Much like the situation in burma. Long live our burmese governments in the world:)

Sami Yusuf - Try Not To Cry

2007-01-08T06:14:00.001-08:00

With the situation in palestine I came to think of the situation a couple of years back... when mohammed eldorra was assasinated... when the intifada was at its peak... when yasser arafat was surrounded in his house... when the west demanded democratic elections... all of the sudden fatah and hamas became two captains to the same ship... and instead of working out a system to cruise this ship to safety they are sinking it... willingly or not...

The following are links off You Tube for two artists that i enjoy lisetening to. Sami Yusuf and Outlandish. the videos speak for themselves. they remind me of who is at stake in palestine, the children and the innocent in general... enjoy

Palestine_outlandish

2007-01-08T06:11:00.001-08:00

2006-12-30T00:28:00.000-08:00

It is the first day of eid and saddam is executed... like most of the arabs i dont know whether to feel happy, sad or angry... all this just proves that injustice breeds injustice... i support the execution of saddam but justly... why did'nt they present him to trial to an international court the way they presented milosevic? The answer lies within injustice and conspiracy... Bush said the trial will end before the end of this year and so it has... but the war has'nt...

This post goes out to all those in Iraq who have, are and will die because of injustice... whether saddam's injustice, Bush's injustice, or the injustice bred by the chaos they created... it goes out to all the arab leaders who are leaders in the biggest sense of the word to dictatorship... it goes out to ethnic and religous rivalry, the cancer that has spread all over the Iraqi body... too bad they still did'nt find a cure to cancer... it goes out to all the innocent children, mothers and ultimatly civilians in Iraq who simply cant get out because they are surrounded by mines... it goes out to arabism that day by day proves its failure... you can't build a skyscraper with paper full of slogans, but you can write slogans about the fake skyscrapers that we think we possess... that is arabism... it goes out to the gulf leaders who played leading roles in this horrific theatrical production... that are and will remain slaves to oil and money, and puppets to who ever pays up... in my view they represent all what is ugly in arab capitalism... a notion depicting the stupidity of arabs when they have money... it goes out to terrorism, which we now have a whole destructed nation getting ready to export and monopolize terrorism all over the world... ironic how any industry we possess are western investments, including terrorism... this goes out to bush who did'nt gain anything from all this blood shed... i wonder how he sleeps at night...

what next? i think the democrats will win the elections, pull the US troops out of Iraq and try to pull Iran in the war... their goal would be to break down iran's power and make it economically impossible for iran to build their nuclear arsenal... iraq will remain in chaos until most of the iraqies will die... in lebanon the opposition will win the next elections and lead that country into instability... a new war with israel wont be a surprise but civil war would be expected... similar to what happened in palestine... speaking of which, i dont think anything new would happen to palestine... instability will be the charactaristic that best describes what will happen there... and believe it or not, i think sudan will stabilize... in egypt, say hello to gamal and bye bye democracy...

lets be angry at injustice, sad for the innocent who have died and will die, and happy... happy... happy for dimming optimism, but atleast its there

ugly humanity

2006-09-27T02:58:00.000-07:00

Sitting in Frankfurt airport waiting for my flight, and suddenly it strikes me the diversity of cultures our earth swallows... And yet we all remain human... There are international traits among human beings... The term humanity for one by definition is a global notion... Ironically this has nothing to do with religion or rather the followers of religion... I mean with terrorism synergized with Islam and the Vatican pope fueling extremism one can loose the smallest hint of hope to the existence of humanity... But if you look closely you realize that humanity exists mostly among the elderly and children... In the latter, I presume, the human part of them was not subject to rape of thought or wars of money or torture of ethics or pain of terrorism or terrorism of words... The elderly on the other hand have experienced at least most of that however their motive to maintain humanity is the status of physical weakness and the fear of death that haunts them... They may spend their lives in denial of their human nature but they mostly do regret it towards the end...

It saddens me to realize that it is those people, children and the elderly, who are on the hunt... Today's wars are all parts of terrorism... you don't need a government to throw bombs on children to justify the act... you don't need to hide behind injustice to justify the murder of an innocent sole... you don't need international consensus to justify a blockade of food and medicine for people who are in need... you don’t need a country with rich natural resources to justify the prevention of genocide… They are all forms of terrorism

If terrorism is bred by injustice then terrorism feeds extremism... Extremism forces injustice to be... it is the hurricane that the world is stuck in today.

the dawn of a "new world order"?

2006-07-22T01:51:00.000-07:00

so lebanon is in war, again... i think this is a result of the huge divide within the lebanese culture... they dont have a solid identity... much like the iraqis in its diversity... they have conservative islamists in the south... liberal christians in the north... with sprinkles of druz all over the place... shiites and sunnis are anything but in agreement... and each one of those sects has differnt feelings towards israel... some dont mind it and prefer not provoke the beast... others believe they have to drive israel off their lands in shabaa disregarding how weak they are and how fragile the texture of their country is... others prefer to literally work for israel then to stand with the masses who oppose it... all of this breeds a government that is fragile enough to barely take a stance that just fits all the sects in lebanon... if lebanon were a unified country then the govnerment would have control over all those sects, not to mention its borders... reality is, it does'nt... when hezbollah decided to kidnap those soldiers they proved something... that they can do whatever they want within lebanon... i dont think they expected the rabbid israeli comeback... nor did the world to be honest... but thats not what concerns me... i believe that the decision to go to war should be a countries' decision and not a militants' group's decision... dont get me wrong, i am a supporter of hezbollah, and of the option of dealing with israel militarily... but i hate to face the fact that what happened in lebanon is a reflection of the status of policy making in all arab countries... it is a reflection of the big jungle each arab country resembles... it is a reflection of how weak our governments really are.... or a reverse reflection of how oppresive most arab countries are... in the arab world small groups of people could have large influence over a whole country...

back to the israeli retaliation strategy... i believe israel is retaliating against hezbollah without actually targeting hezbollah with their bombs... if you look closely their bombs have targeted civilians, or infrastructure... their aim consists of two in my opinion, to seclude hezbollah and to turn the lebanese people against hezbollah... they figure if they cut electricity and seige lebanon to make them starve to death then the lebanese will turn against hezbollah who started the war and are escalating it even further... i dont think israel plans on invading southern lebanon again, it costs too much... plus they should learn from their american friends and their experience in iraq...

if you think of it, you will realize that all this is just another brick in the walls they are creating to jail islamist groups... by they i mean all of those who have interests opposing the rise of islamist groups... including arab governments... hence you could explain the US green light to deal with hamas and hezbollah appropriatly... hence you could explain the reaction of arab countries who in some cases condemned hezbollah for their unilateral actions... hence you could explain the israeli strategy to deal with those groups which is to turn their own people on them... it is noteworthy that they started this strategy with hamas with the help of Abbas Abo Mazen...

Taking the issue from that perspective i think the following scenario will take course... constant bombings on civilians for a while... until peace talks and diplomatic measure take over... the aim of those measures will be to strengthen the lebanese army to take control of its borders and more importantly to disarm hezbollah and take control of the south... ofcourse this will happen in two cases... if the plan to turn the lebanese people against hezbollah succeeds and if syria submits to the laws of power... i dont think that israel would like to open a new front against syria cause then it will invite a regional war with iran... and in my opinion israel would loose alot... on the otherhand i dont think syria would want to take that risk and open a front with israel... all syria can really do is supply hezbollah with support discretly...

At the end all of this is just a taste of the rise of islamists in the region and the birth of new regional power (iran)... this contributes to a whole new regional order and more importantly a new world order... the world is inviting anti-western nuclear powers that are imposing control of the regions surrounding them... would'nt it be interesting if eventually those powers form one front lead by russia and china? just a thought

sitting on a balcony

2006-05-30T06:20:00.000-07:00

Sitting on a balcony watching downtown Cairo… I see the people dancing… singing… humming along… those people are well dressed… clothes that are western and not one galabeyya… the music is western and the words are in Arabic… even the drinks are western… where are the beggars? Where is the essence of downtown cairo? What ever happened to the people? to the Egyptians? The truth is I'm describing a performance that I attended for a group called "wist el-balad' or downtown cairo… then I think to myself are we safe? What are the people dancing about anyways? Why are they so happy? just outside the selfish walls they live in they will realize that downtown is suffering from exactly this… people singing whilst downtown is burning to ashes… We are invaded by the west… whether militarily, economically or culturally… western products, services, equipments, everything basically monopolize our markets… the other day Israel wanted to buy a hotspot in the heart of downtown cairo, and they still are singing… Sinai is on the front lines of the clash of civilizations and they remain singing… efforts are done to assassinate justice, while they remain singing… one thousand people or more died in a ferry accident, the accuser ran away and they still remain singing… our freedom is synergized with emergency and they still remain to be singing…

it confuses me how they find happy words to their songs… so much for sincerity… thank you hypocrisy, you made Egypt what it is today… thank you oppression you made people like me sing in denial of reality… I salut you dictatorship, for brining the worst to this country… at the end the people will realize how poor this country has become because of the rich who control it… at the end the world will realize that weapons of mass destruction are hidden in the trenches they help build in our cultures… at the end the poor man in the street in downtown cairo will commit suicide… at the end the group west elbalad will sing in downtown cairo with the elite dancing over the corpse of our culture and the real Egyptians… my prayers go out to those who lost their voices in protests… to those who spilt their blood for a cause… to those who broke their ribs with the sticks of the oppressors… I pray for a different ending than the one described… I pray that downtown cairo will sing in joy after their freedom is achieved… after they free this country… I pray that the poor man in down town cairo will rebel for the sake of justice or even for his loaf of bread… I pray that a revolution will bring this country right side up… I pray

the land that is boiling and freezing

2006-02-12T06:17:00.000-08:00

this is the land where the poor hate the rich and the rich hate the poor... and yet the poor needs the rich and the rich need the poor... and so they both smile in the face of each other

this is the land where religion is a sin... the beird is a symbol of terrorism while the glass of whiskey is a symbol of modernism... the beird belongs to the prophet (PBUH) while the glass of whiskey belongs to someone who wants to forget... up side down is how the people of this land live

this is the land where individualism is the growing pain of the people... the media creates a synergy of self centered activities that breed on materialism... while the person next to you is dying from hunger, war, crimes, or even dying because he cant read... and yet society blinds us and focuses our attention on singers, dancers or even a loosing soccer team... devastated is how a selfish person dies

this is the land where double standards is a principle... make way for someone with money or influence and make hell for the other person... unless you have connections you are destined to live miserably... unless you believen this principle you will live alone... give up and give in to the system or stand against the tsunami of injustice... unhappy is a person with out sane principles

this is the land where oppression became a habit... not just to the oppressors but to the people who are being oppressed... they cannot imagine a day without the oppressor... they cannot forsee a leader but the oppressor... they cannot imagine a system without a dictator... sheep they are, and will remain to be unless the think outside the heard

this is the land where hypocrasy is an ethic... much like honesty once was... the higher you go up the ladder the more hypocrites you will find... the lower you go down the ladder the more honest people you will find... they are becoming a scarce resource, and hypocrites are becoming a natural resource... doomed we are with the reign of luyers

this is the land i grew up in... this is the land i love... not because of those qualities but because you have to love your mother... this is the land i hope to die in... and this is the land i will strive to fix... this land is egypt

sing in the face of me... if you will

2006-02-01T00:54:00.000-08:00

sing in the face of me... if you will

force a smile to be... if you can

please fight to be free ... that, you can

see who remains free... to offer a helping hand

then come to me and cry... that, you will

cry to me more... more and more you will

wipe your tears and pray... if only you have faith

jump to your feet and stand... taller and stronger you get

and fight not to be or be... a destined path to win

always thank allah... if you win or loose again

then sing in the face of me again… if you will

an empire with kids

2005-12-20T05:49:00.000-08:00

since when was love so hard? since always stupid... since when was it a prerequisite to let go of your dignity in order to create a relationship? not always stupid, just sometimes. Depending on the situtation actually... but i would guess that women have a tendency to humiliate a man who is in love with them just so that they can feel they are precious... fascism but in a romantic way if you will... don't get me wrong, by all means they are precious... and because we, the men, are stupid we are willing to give them what they want, happily that is... "we complete each other"... i would assume that one of the many proofs that there is a god is the strikingly perfect way in wich men and women fit together... its even mentioned in the quran...

Nevertheless one comes to realize that life is STILL not perfect... divorces, breakups, even murders invade relationships today... the invasion is expanding horrifically... nonetheless people continue to attempt to create relationships regardless of the risks they take... men remain stubborn and stupid and women (in many cases) remain self centered and short sighted... and with these weapons they will fight the invasion with their eyes set on each other... suddenly as differences arise the war of the worlds erupts... all of the sudden the invasion takes over and they are found behind enemy lines... survival is subject to their own skills in discovering that unity is their map to get back home... sometimes they give up too easy... one of them realizes that they cant fight any longer... and then ... death... the relationship dies... reincarnation is a possibility... they rediscover a different angle to the relationship that could get them back home... and still they would have to fight like heros... they do it because they realize that the tiniest amount of happiness they enjoy when they are together overwhemingly overcomes the barriers and obstacles that stand in their way... with this they are able to turn the black forests they are lost in into home sweet home... all of the sudden they are invading the enemies land... and all of the sudden they are an empire with kids... and all of the sudden they live happily ever after... they become king and queen to each other

life is fragile

2005-11-08T02:05:00.000-08:00

life is literally like a glass. you look at it and it seems perfect. Then in the blink of an eye and unexpectidly it falls down and breaks.

The message is life is fragile, dont waste it and make the best of it. I dont mean the western notion of living your life. Realize that there is an after life and that you will be judged by the almighty. Even if you dont realize this fact, live your life for the people and keep a happy thought of you in the people who will still be alive when you unexpectidly die. Exclude the lusts in life and plant good will in your actions. It should be the thought that monopolizes your life's actions. If not, the opposite will lead to the dustruction of the human inside you.

Control your desires, live for the people obeying the god who created you and them. And use the fire to build and not destroy. Finally dont let your control over the flames burn you.

something on my mind

2005-11-06T00:50:00.000-08:00

something is on my mind... keeping me busy... actually it is a couple of things...

i guess these issues are the ones that occupy most of my time. As is the case of any average person. Family, Friends, Career, Health, Politics and Love Life, are the issues i'm referring to. But one thing seems to capture all of them and set the rules for each one of them. I would be luying also if i stated that it shares the same amount of concern from myself. It obviously supersedes all of those issues put together. That issue is religion.

I am a muslim, sunni muslim actually. What does that mean? well, i believen one god, allah, his prophet mohammed, peace be upon him. I pray five times a day. I will pay zakat (charity but with certain sets of rules) when i am eligible to do that. I fast ramadan and finally i plan to do my pilgrimage or hajj when i am capable to. This is just a brief description of islam. I will not waste my time and talk about the values of islam. I dont think it would need me to explain how robust this religion is. Nor would it need me to counter argue all the unjust accusations facing islam today by both muslims and non muslims. Islam speeks for itself with the quran and the actions of the prophet and his companions.

Ironically, although this religion takes most of my time thinking I still somehow manage to stupidly let it down. I blame myself for all the sins I've done. It is true i am a muslim but not islam. All muslims around the world do not represent islam. Nor should anyone think that i represent islam. I dont apreciate people judging me. I only expect and fear gods judgement. I hate it when someone expects me to be some way religously and makes me feel as if i'm worshiping him/her and not god. What people fail to understand about me is that i am a stubborn person. I may very well do what they wish me to do, sooner or later. But the second i feel pressure from someone i reject, stupidly or not, even if i'm wrong. To deal with me you have to be supportive. There is a huge thick line seperating supportive from pressuring.

To be supportive you have to encourage a person when he needs you the most. To push him to take that final step that seems impossible to take. To make him believe he can and not can't. To be be supportive you have to gently teach him how he can learn from his mestakes. To offer guidance when he most needs it. To be there when he falls down and be offer a hand to make him stand up again. And definetly not to nag on him when he is down or even on his way down. To be supportive you have to have the ability to contain him when he is erupting. To be the shoulder he will most definetly need to lean on when he is not living the best times of his life. To be the least thing putting pressure on him and even taking pressure of his back.

Come to think of it I think the one thing a person needs to be great is supportive people around him. I cannot even imagine people who were destined to be great throughout time without the support of the people who love them. The prophet peace be upon him is the perfect example for this as well as everything in life. His wife Khadija was one of the most crucial people who supported the prophet when he needed it most. I guess that is what i need, especially these days.

eternal skeptical optimism

2005-10-05T13:16:00.000-07:00

i'm standing in the middle of somewhere with nothing in my hand. how did i get here and how can i get out are thoughts that screem through my mind... but i hear voices telling me that this is the way its gonna be... this is reality, deal with it... this is my reality...

sound weird? somewhere, is where i am in my life at the moment... empty hands is what i achieved and the thoughts are words of denial giving me a glimpse of hope. Every change starts with a revolution and those thoughts are the dawn of a revolution that will get me what i want from this life...

the questions are how did i get here and how can i get out... alls i gotta do is answer them and look to the next step... i refuse to take baby steps and i undermine the barriers in my way... believe it or not the ultimate gains comes from your will... and the ultimate barrier is my will... yes i do undermine my strong will in some cases... but in others i know its low... either way i gotta keep pushing and thats what i'm gonna do... focus on the road and dont look sideways... leap with your faith in god... and smile looking back when you get there...

i will get there one day isa

2005-09-19T15:20:00.000-07:00

Sometimes I think to myself, howcome, when all I know is that it can't be… sometimes I know that it is impossible and I manage to convince myself that it ain't that hard to get… confused is how I am when I face complicated problems.

Focus is what I need in cases of extreme confusion. Stress, is a load I cannot carry and fear is something I have to utilize. Regret is something I will not accept and mistakes are things I have to learn from. Belief is the guiding light and hesitation is what dims it.

Any brink of dawn to the most complicated problems comes when I depend on the almighty. I need to sprint towards my goals with my eyes fixed on it, I cant afford to look around. I know I will get there one day, I also know that it wont be easy.

traveler's notes: Botswana edition

2005-09-05T02:27:00.000-07:00

hmm... well i'm on my way back to egypt from botswana... i'm currently on a 10 hour transit in dubai airport!! but to tell you the truth i did'nt feel a thing... time went by so fast... maybe thats because i'm numb... i have'nt slept for like 30 hours or something... maybe more, i lost count...

did you know that in botswana the president jokes!! i mean i was attending a conference over there and during the official dinner hosted by the president he was joking around with his ministers and the guests invited!! SHOCKING RIGHT?!!

in egypt the president jokes around on occasions... he has a sense of humour... but more often than not the people dont get the jokes... the other day he was joking about how egypt has become very democratic!! obviously a joke... i mean him, he is a joke!! lol...

how many times has the president made us laugh?!! i recall a time when he was riding the golf cart with president bush in sharm... he was like a kid on a scooter with his jaws open and his eyes full of joy... president bush had facial expressions that implied his sarcacism to how mubarak was reacting to the utterly slow vehicle!!

oh and the time he wished the lady doing the handmade rugs to expand one day and get machines to do the sewing instead!! i mean it would be sad if he did'nt mean it as a joke, right?!! wrong actually, this is him... you know how goofy makes people laugh by goofing up what ever it is he is doing? that is mubarak, our own real life goofy!! man, what a character!!

just imagine if he had his own sit com. I mean something like frasier or seinfeld, but called mubarak ofcourse!!... or friends!! he can be chandler bing!! oh and zakariya azmy for ross, and maybe safwat elsharif for joey... sorry my bad, safwat is nothing compared to joey... i mean for one joey attracts the girls, safwat repels them... i guess safwat could replace janice, annoying as he is... i wont venture to replace the entire cast of friends... mubarak has his own show anyways... watch his campaign and you'll understand what i mean...

anyhow... i think i have to go... my plane is about to board... thank you mubarak, for the laughs that is...

Arab = Insult

2005-08-24T13:48:00.000-07:00

I was watching TV a couple of minutes ago and they were discussing the definition of the word "Arab" in webster's dictionary. It defines it with words like arrogant, retarded, anti-zionist, anti-israeli, and couple more words that fall under the category of an insult. But that is not what got me thinking. It is the west's opinion that we arabs may be as they perceive us, deliberately or not. One of the arguments on the show, who by the way is an arab, represented the point of view that we the arabs do infact entail many of those meanings if not all. Hence before suing webster we should really question ourselves and try to prove those meanings wrong. All we did for the world was export terrorist figures such as osama bin laden and ayman alzawahry and contribute heavily to the turmoil the world is in today. The opposing argument was that the west themselves were barbaric and that the civilization they display today roots back to the arab civilization, basically implying that it is thanks to the arabs that the west have the technology they have today.

Now I will display my own opinion. Firstly, I don't believen arab nationalism. I only believen an islamic umma under certain conditions. To have one united islamic umma with the muslims who surface the earth today is not wise in my opinion. In fact it is actually impossible. The muslims are not who they claim to be. They are not prioritizing their religion over everything. Believe it or not music has become more important to a lot of muslims. God stated in his holy book something around this meaning, "god will not change the status of a nation until they change themselves". I think this grasps solidly what i want to say in this point. There are a million and one other reasons to why we can't have an islamic umma today, not to mention the misunderstandings of islam that create terrorism today.

I thank webster's dictionary for naming us with these insults. It only proves to me how deteriorated we arabs really are. If we had one smudge of self dignity we would have revolted civicly and sought the channels to stop this atrocity from continuing. I would call for an apology in the upcoming versions of the dictionary and clearly stating that it was a mistake to describe arabs this way. But i doubt this will happen, the arabs themselves are suffering from severe negativity with everything they are going through. The last thing on their mind is defending rights. This is a region that suffered for decades from oppression. I am not referring only to the dictatorships that still reign the command of the arab nations today. I am referring also to the colonialist eras. The west need to understand the psychology of the normal arab citizen. He has become tired from fighting. He doesn't give a damn if iraq falls or if Jerusalem falls for that sake. If jerusalem falls the arabs will protest for a while and then go back home looking for a loaf of bread and a TV to watch the exposing musical videos that invade the arab TV channels today.

We need a leader. Someone with a moderate islamic point of view. Someone who is open minded and listens before taking decisions. Someone who is a fast learner and will learn the geography of every single ally in the country he will lead. By geography I am ofcourse referring to the needs of the people. Learn what the people want and then give it to them. The word learn does not mean get that information from them. Sadly they don't know what they want. They have outlines, like they want food. The leader shouldn't give them the fish but teach them how to fish. He must understand that the number one enemy to the arab world region today is not the west nor israel. It is their crippling inability to really understand. To be open minded and think... just think... read for that matter... illteracy levels in the arab region are embarrassing. How can you call for the international community to respect who you are if half your population can't write their names?!! The leader must lay down the foundation to create civil individuals, then communities, then countries, then nations. He must have that vision. Our gold is not the oil... our gold is our minds... it is who we are... it is how we act... it is how nations tear us apart... because we refuse to understand under the label of conspiracy theories or ignorance... we are not the pharoahs, nor are we the leaders of the world as we once were. We are ... i am sorry to say... today's arabs. Even worst... we are today's muslims...

Believen change and it will come... but take the time to think and then believe... without a vision to fit your dream it is just a mirage...

a mission to the edge of life

2005-08-22T12:44:00.000-07:00

Hey how’s life? I don’t know where to start; my life has so many things wrong with it. But I think the most thing I despise about my life is the fact that I don’t have a constant relationship with god. I believe this problem is where my life rotates around. The ups and downs in my life are affected directly by my relationship with god. I am not surprised that this is the case because it is only logical that my creator would like my life to rotate around him. After all he did mention it in his holy book (the quran). I only hope that he would consider me as his worshiper before I die. Not only that but I really do hope he would use me as a soldier to fight what he sees as evil on this earth. But the truth is I have an extremely weak sole. One that is week to the extent that I sometimes can’t resist doing the smallest of sins. Thank god I was blessed with an environment that guides me to him. However this environment is not perfect.

The battle between good and evil is clear everywhere around me. Unfortunately what makes life so hard is not the battle but the ability to recognize who’s the good and who’s the evil. Life is nothing but a huge test where you have to figure out the answers to many questions that seem like they have more than one answer. But the truth is they all have only one answer. In the test, you are faced with wrong answers, fake answers, controversial answers, and many more types of answers to questions like who do you believe. And there is always one right answer to these questions as for the example that I mentioned the only right answer is ALLAH! I say so without any form of hesitation. I am absolutely convinced that there is a god and he is Allah. Isn’t it ironic or rather sad that I believe in god and still I choose to disobey him. I say choose because everything in life is by choice. God gave us the choice to go to either heaven or hell. But wait, my intellect has deceived me. We do not choose our destinies. Rather we choose our will which by its role decides our destiny according to gods will. Sounds confusing, I know. But life is confusing to the untamed soul. Once you realize who your creator is, why he created you, and on what basis does he judge you then everything about life becomes crystal clear. I don’t claim to know all that, however I do claim that I try to reach that point. This is the will I am talking about. Inshallah (god willing) god will judge all of us according to our will. So I guess our life is nothing but a game of will. The prize is a heaven that is beyond ones imagination. But if you loose, you’re thrown into a hell where pain and suffering is beyond any creature’s imagination. At the end you choose your will to either go to heaven or to hell after the merciful judges you. Don’t think that Allah wants to punish you. On the contrary, he created you to worship him. He wants to see you follow his orders. He does realize that you are not perfect and he does not seek your perfection. However he seeks your will to desire perfection. And perfection in our world is only pictured in himself, god I mean. If you desire god then you live to see heaven. But if you don’t you’d probably rather want to die than to live to suffer one second in hell. Unfortunately you won’t be given the privilege to die another time so basically you get one lifetime to prove that your worthy of his mercy. Think on the bright side you can work hard for sixty years or so then live for ever in the most relaxing, enjoyable, fun, happy life for ever. Think about it and have a good life and a better after life inshallah.

a thought that ripped its way on paper a while back

2005-08-22T12:38:00.000-07:00

Today is Saturday the 26th of march 2005. The time is 9:05 pm and I’m in the mood to write. Its been a while since I last wrote anything. Hmm, lets see what can I write about…

Well next Monday there is another poetic night for Tarek Kotb. His poems are uniquely special to myself. I was really inspired by the poem he posted on this event’s brochure. I think mainly because I feel what its saying. It basically describes how one person could spend a lot of time listening to people’s problems and trying to be as helpful as possible to everyone he knows, and yet he feels so lonely inside. He screems on the inside almost daily and yet no one hears him or even has a hint about what he feels. Ironically he always succeeds in planting a smile on his face. Sometimes a person could feel so alone, so helpless, so vulnerable, so furious, so disappointed, and what makes all that most horrible is when that person has no one to talk to. No one to share his feelings with. No one to offer at least sympathy with the hell he could be going through on the inside. I don’t think its because there are’nt people around him that would be happy to help… maybe because he does’nt want to bother anyone with his problems. He only feels comfortable with himself… and by himself I also mean his partner… ofcourse to him she is him… its like falling in love with your self, except more… its like falling in love with your self, except she just has a different body… that’s how I feel when I fall in love with someone… to me she is me… no, to me she is she… cause I would love her more than myself…